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2024-12-14 11:34:39

Central Economic Work Conference: In view of the bottleneck of industrial transformation and upgrading, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The meeting proposed that we should unswervingly deepen reform and open wider to the outside world in view of the deep-seated obstacles and external challenges that restrict development; In view of the bottleneck restriction of industrial transformation and upgrading, promote the smooth continuous transformation of old and new kinetic energy; Strengthen policy support and optimize supervision services in response to concerns and demands in business operations; In view of the hidden risks in key areas, we will continue to vigorously promote risk disposal. We must vigorously improve the efficiency of implementation, fully mobilize the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of grassroots units, continuously optimize the business environment, and better unite the joint efforts to promote high-quality development. (Xinhua News Agency)Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.European Central Bank President Lagarde: Protectionism will lead to short-term inflation. European Central Bank President Lagarde: Protectionism will lead to short-term inflation. Higher tariffs may lead to inflation in the short term; The final impact of high tariffs on inflation is uncertain.


European Central Bank President Lagarde: The proposal to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been agreed by everyone. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the proposal to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been agreed by everyone, and inflation is expected to reach 2% in the medium term. There are some discussions about cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, but it is generally believed that a 25 basis point cut is the right move. The wage level will reach a level consistent with the inflation target of 2%.European Central Bank President Lagarde: Labor cost growth will slow down.European Central Bank President Lagarde: The impact of the US presidential election is still uncertain. European Central Bank President Lagarde: The impact of the US presidential election is still uncertain.


Government statement: British Prime Minister Stamer will attend the informal meeting of EU leaders in Brussels on February 3rd.European Central Bank President Lagarde: Enterprises are curbing investment, exports are weak, and labor demand continues to weaken. The employment opportunities created are decreasing, so economic development should be strengthened, and the economic rebound is slower than expected.Dutch International Bank: The European Central Bank will continue to cut interest rates in the new year, Carsten Brzeski, macro director of Dutch International Bank, wrote in a report to customers that the European Central Bank will take action again to reduce borrowing costs. The euro zone central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, in line with expectations. Inflation is still a worrying problem, but the resistance to growth is even greater, especially the financial crisis in France and the threat posed by the US tariff on European goods. He said that with the change in the tone of the European Central Bank, the bank may cut interest rates again in the new year.

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